Correction (Sept. 30, 2026): An earlier version of this post recommended three players who had not played and were sidelined (Isaac Guerendo on the PUP list; Trey Benson and Ricky Pearsall on injured reserve), listed Kaleb Johnson with Pittsburgh (he plays for Green Bay and took no Week 1 offensive snaps), described Week 1 roles for TreVeyon Henderson, who missed the game injured, and Xavier Legette that did not match what happened, and called Colston Loveland a rookie. It has been updated.
Key takeaways
- Three roles crack open every Week 1 — a backup RB, a passing-game specialist, and a rookie TE. Bid the archetype, not the highlight.
- Kaelon Black is the top FAAB target — the rookie out-carried Christian McCaffrey 14 to 10 in Week 1. Standalone flex, not just a handcuff.
- Cap single-bid FAAB at 20%. You will need budget for Weeks 3-5 when the real breakouts land.
- Two draft-day darlings are drop candidates — keep the rookie WR ascending, cut the rookie RB stuck behind a healthy vet.
- Do not overreact to Week 1 — half of Tuesday's darlings are gone by Week 4.
You have three days between Monday night and the Wednesday morning waiver run. Use them. Every Week 1 leaves the same three kinds of players sitting on the wire — a backup RB whose snap count spiked, a passing-game specialist who suddenly has a route tree, and a rookie tight end who was on the field for the first time in a game that mattered. The public reads the box score. You read the snap count.
Here is the list, tiered by FAAB spend for a 12-team league. Adjust up for deeper leagues, down for shallower ones, and remember that Week 2 is a shopping trip, not a rescue mission. If you are 0-1, you are still in a 16-week season. Do not empty the budget yet.
RB adds — where the value hides in Week 2
Kaelon Black (RB – SF) — FAAB: 18-25%
The 49ers backfield was always going to be a two-man look, and Week 1 confirmed it: the rookie out of Indiana took 14 carries for 65 yards on 28 of 65 snaps — four more carries than Christian McCaffrey. That makes him the top add on the entire board and worth aggressive FAAB. Even in a “bad” usage script he is the direct handcuff on McCaffrey, whose floor has real teeth in it this year (we wrote the case before Week 1). Black is one snap-count nudge away from being an every-week starter.
MarShawn Lloyd (RB – GB) — FAAB: 8-14%
Green Bay’s backfield cracked open before the opener: Josh Jacobs is on the commissioner’s exempt list with no timetable, and Lloyd led the Packers in carries in Week 1 (13 for 37 yards) while trade acquisition Kaleb Johnson did not take an offensive snap. Chris Brooks played more snaps and the efficiency was ugly, so this is a role bet, not a box-score bet — add him now, before the beat writers name-drop him on the Tuesday podcast circuit. The role is on a runway, not a switch; you want to be there before the switch flips.
TreVeyon Henderson (RB – NE) — FAAB: 6-10%
Henderson missed Week 1 with an ankle injury (he rolled it in practice on Aug. 24), and Rhamondre Stevenson carried the load with 18 carries on 60 of 71 snaps. Only bid if he is back at practice and a leaguemate cut him during the injury. He is not going to unseat Stevenson in Week 2 — that is a Week 6 conversation at the earliest — but a healthy third-down back on a Patriots team that will be playing from behind is a PPR flex you tolerate.
Emmett Johnson (RB – KC) — FAAB: 4-8%
The Chiefs will not take Kenneth Walker III off the field — he ran 23 times for 173 yards in Monday’s opener — but the rookie Johnson was the clear No. 2, with eight carries and two catches on 25 snaps. He is a legitimate stash. This is the guy who wins your league in Week 9 if Walker tweaks something.
WR adds — the ascending target share plays
Jalen Coker (WR – CAR) — FAAB: 10-15%
Coker was the Week 1 breakout: nine targets, eight catches, 138 yards and two touchdowns on 57 of 68 snaps. Discount the touchdowns — see the warning below — but the snap share and the target count are a role, not a fluke. Add him.
Luther Burden III (WR – CHI) — FAAB: 5-9%
Bears, so temper the ceiling. But Burden was on the field for 55 of 75 snaps in Week 1 and caught all five of his targets for 63 yards. If the targets climb toward eight, he is a flex you start against soft coverage. If they stay around five, he is a bench stash for two more weeks.
Roman Wilson (WR – PIT) — FAAB: 3-6%
Wilson missed most of his rookie year. If he was on the field in three-wide sets in Week 1 and drew any red-zone looks, he is the sneaky Steelers WR to have — more so than the guys everyone drafted. Deep-league bid only in shallow formats.
TE adds — the position where Week 2 wins your season
Colston Loveland (TE – CHI) — FAAB: 8-12%
Young TEs almost never hit in Week 1, and second-year Loveland did not (no catches on two targets), but he has the draft capital and the playing time — 65 of 75 snaps — to break out by mid-October. If he ran even 60% of the routes in Week 1, add him now — the target share catches up when the offense does. In leagues that started 12 TEs on rosters, this is a top-3 add on the whole wire.
Tyler Warren (TE – IND) — FAAB: 6-10%
Same case as Loveland but in a run-heavier scheme, so temper the ceiling. Add if you streamed a TE in Week 1 who let you down — there is a real chance Warren is a season-long streamer by Week 4.
Deep-league stashes and the drop test
These are 0-3% FAAB shots — no more than a dollar in traditional dollar formats. You are betting on a role change, not a Week 2 explosion.
- Backup RB behind an injury-prone starter — find the RB1 with the worst injury history in your league and roster his backup. That is Kaelon Black philosophy applied to the whole board.
- WR3 in a top-five offense — the third receiver in Detroit, Buffalo, Cincinnati, or Miami is worth a bench spot more than the WR2 on a bottom-five offense you are currently rostering.
- The rookie TE nobody drafted — every year there is one. Read the snap counts, not the box score.
| League size | Cap FAAB per single bid | Reserve for weeks 3-5 |
|---|---|---|
| 10-team | 15% | 40% |
| 12-team | 20% | 35% |
| 14-team+ | 25% | 30% |
Drop candidates — the honest part
You cannot add without cutting. Here are the guys sitting on rosters right now who should not be by Wednesday morning:
- Any backup RB behind a healthy vet with a locked lead-back role. If the starter took 20+ touches in Week 1, the backup is not going to matter until December. Cut.
- Rookie WRs stuck behind two entrenched vets — unless you are in a keeper league, they are hurting your bench.
- Kickers and defenses from teams on Week 2 bye — no bye weeks in Week 2, but this is a general reminder that streaming K/DEF is free and rostering them full-time is not.
You do not win leagues by hitting the Week 2 waiver. You win by not overpaying for the Week 2 waiver and still having budget when the Week 6 breakout hits.
The Week 1 waiver piece named the pre-season role bubbles. This Week 2 list is what happens when those bubbles either pop or hold. If you already read the Week 1 overreaction trap, you know the discipline — small bids, ascending roles, and never the guy your leaguemate is loudly demanding.
The pick'em angle
The waiver wire is a market. When your whole league is bidding 40% on the same Sunday hero back, that offense is priced in for the next few weeks — the picks market is going to overvalue their spread for the same reason. Fade the “everyone loves the RB” team for a week; those spreads always over-adjust. The RB1 story reverses just often enough that the discount you get on the opposing side is a real edge in a confidence pool.
Waivers process Wednesday morning. Get your claims in, don't blow the budget, and take that same read into the picks board on the leaderboard before the Thursday game locks it in. The waiver wire and the picks board reward the same discipline — and if you like calling upsets, that's literally the game.